Solar Costs Could Rise Soon—Don’t Miss Out Before STC Rebates Shrink

Don’t Miss Out Before Federal STC Rebates Shrink

If you’ve been thinking about going solar in Australia, Victoria more specifically, right now (2025 year-end) might be one of the last truly affordable moments to make the switch. The federal STC (Small-scale Technology Certificate) rebate—the incentive that’s been knocking thousands off solar system and batterye prices for years—is slowly being phased down. That means every year you wait; the discount shrinks and your solar or battery gets more expensive. Most homeowners don’t realize this until it’s too late.

Before jumping into STCs technical explanation, let us show you how smart homeowners are saving on their solar systems and batteries across different suburbs in Victoria/Melbourne. We'll share just last month's (November 2025) stats:

What Is the STC Rebate—Why Is It Shrinking?

Each year the deeming period shrinks, you receive fewer STCs… and your solar rebate gets smaller.

The STC incentive under the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) has been one of the biggest reasons solar has become so affordable in Australia. It works by giving you tradable certificates based on how much clean energy your system is expected to generate over time—essentially turning your future solar production into upfront savings.

But here’s the part many homeowners miss: the scheme has a built-in “step-down” timer. The deeming period—the number of years your solar system is assumed to produce energy—drops every single year until the program ends entirely in 2030.

In 2025, the deeming period has already fallen to 6 years, and from 1 January 2026, it drops again to 5 years. After that, it will continue stepping down every single year until the scheme wraps up entirely in 2030.

What does that mean for you?
Quite simply: fewer STCs = a smaller rebate = a higher out-of-pocket cost for your solar system.

So every year you wait, a little more of that federal discount disappears—and once it’s gone, it’s gone for good.

How Big Is the Impact?

According to the Clean Energy Regulator, the drop in the deeming period isn’t just a small tweak — it’s actually a 14.3% cut to the rebate when moving from 7 years (2024) to 6 years (2025). That’s a big chunk of savings gone in just one year.

How Much Victorians are Saving? Real Installations No Guesswork

This customer in Attwood VIC 3049 saved $912 (saved $3,572 now vs will save $2,660 next year). See what our customers say about Green Electric Solutions:

To get a feel for what this means in real life, imagine you’re installing a 5 kW solar system in Melbourne. Victoria falls under STC Zone 2, which uses a rating of about 1.468. With the 2025 deeming period now at 6 years, your STC calculation looks like this:

5 kW × 1.468 × 6 years ≈ 44 STCs

And with the STC market price averaging around $39.90 in early 2025, your rebate would come to roughly $1,755.

That’s money coming straight off your installation cost — and remember, this amount will continue to shrink every year the deeming period falls.

Recent Successful Solar Plus Battery Installations in Victoria

• Sigenergy 25kW Solar System & Rebates in Dingley Village VIC 3172!
• 11kW Solar System with 48kWh Battery in Attwood, Victoria
• 13kW Solar with 40kWh Battery Setup in Doreen, Victoria
• 17kW Solar with 19kWh Battery Installation in Strathtulloh
• 11kW solar with 40kWh battery installation in Cranbourne, VIC
• 13kW Solar and 42kWh Battery Installation in Donnybrook, Victoria

Why You Should Act Now—Before It’s Too Late

The way the STC scheme is designed, waiting could cost you real money.

Every year the deeming period drops, and the number of STCs you’re eligible for goes down — which means smaller rebates and higher upfront costs. By 2026, when the deeming period falls to just 5 years, your solar rebate could shrink significantly, leaving you to pay more out of pocket for the same system.

In short: the longer you wait, the less you save—and the sooner you act, the more you lock in today’s higher discount.

• STC Market Dynamics
  
  • The STC market price has been hovering around $39.90 in early 2025.
  • Waiting too long could cause demand to spike or supply to tighten.
  • If that happens, STC prices could rise, making your rebate less valuable.
  • Acting now lets you lock in today’s higher rebate and keep your solar system more affordable.
    
• Battery Incentive Also Shrinking
  
  • From July 2025, home batteries became eligible for STCs under the Cheaper Home Batteries Program.
  • But just like solar, the STC rate for batteries is decreasing:
    
    • In 2025: ~9.3 STCs per kWh of usable capacity (~$372/kWh) dcceew.gov.au
    • From 1 January 2026, that drops to ~8.4 STCs/kWh. Get Battery Quotes
  • So if you’re planning to pair solar with storage, waiting could significantly reduce that battery rebate too.

Policy Phase-Out by 2030

• The Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) is set to end in 2030.
• Every year you delay means losing a portion of the remaining STC benefits.
• The longer you wait, the smaller your rebate and the higher your upfront cost.
• Acting sooner helps you capture the maximum savings while the scheme is still active.

The Local Picture: What This Means for Victorians

If you're in Victoria, the timing is particularly relevant:

1. Solar adoption in Victoria has been strong, with homeowners becoming more aware of government incentives.
2. Delaying now means missing out on one of the most valuable financial benefits of going solar.
3. Rising electricity prices, grid constraints, and inflation make solar + batteries not only environmentally smart but also a financially wise choice.

Contact Green Electric Solutions For Solar System

Green Electric Solutions is here to make going solar easy for Victorian homeowners. With STC rebates dropping each year, we help you understand your real savings and give you clear, honest quotes. As shown in our case study, acting early can save you a big chunk of money upfront. With Green Electric, you get trusted advice, quality systems, and support every step of the way—so you can switch to solar with confidence.

Why Install Before the STC Drops Further: A Strategic Case

Here’s a simple strategic case for why now is a good time to act:

Factor	Benefit of Acting Now
Maximum STC Rebate	You lock in a higher number of STCs before the deeming period declines again.
Lower Out-of-Pocket Cost	The STC rebate directly lowers your solar system’s purchase price.
Better Battery Value	If you plan to install a battery, getting in now means a stronger STC incentive.
Predictable Payback	With a stronger rebate, payback periods improve, improving ROI.
Hedging Against Policy Risk	As the SRES phases out, early adopters benefit most—waiting increases risk.

Solar panels will get cheaper anyway—why rush?
Sure, panel prices have dropped over time, but the STC rebate is falling even faster. Waiting could mean paying more upfront, even if panels themselves are slightly cheaper.

I don’t need a battery right now.
No worries—even a standalone solar system benefits from STCs. But if you add a battery later, the rebate for storage will be smaller, meaning less savings.

What about feed-in tariffs in Victoria?
Feed-in tariffs can vary and aren’t always huge. But the STC rebate is an upfront saving that immediately reduces your costs. Combine that with self-consumption, and your investment still pays off handsomely.

Bottom Line: Don’t Miss Out Before STC Rebates Shrink

The federal STC rebate is shrinking each year, and with the deeming period dropping further in 2026, solar will become more expensive. For Victorian homeowners—and all Australians—this could be one of the last chances to grab a strong rebate. If you’ve been hesitating about solar or adding a battery, now’s the time to act. 

Get quotes from trusted Green Electric Solution installers, check your STC discount carefully, and secure your savings before they shrink—the sooner you act, the quicker your payback.

Contact Us

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